This whitepaper assesses the economic viability of autonomous mobility services at SAE Level 4 based on a Total Cost of Ownership analysis derived from the SAFESTREAM project. The focus lies on operational cost structures, regulatory requirements, and scalability, with particular emphasis on the role of Technical Supervision under the German AFGBV framework.
The analysis shows that early, pilot-oriented L4 deployments are structurally non-competitive, with costs of approximately 3,80 €/vehicle-kilometer. These high cost levels result from limited scale, conservative remote assistance setups, and high fixed costs associated with vehicles, software, and control center infrastructure.
With increasing operational maturity, costs decline significantly. In stabilized early commercial deployments, total costs decrease to around 2,50 €/vehicle-kilometer, driven primarily by improved utilization, lower software and maintenance costs, and more efficient Technical Supervision. In a scaled and operationally mature configuration, costs reach approximately 1,40 €/vehicle-kilometer, approaching the cost range of conventional ride-hailing services.
A comparison with conventional taxi and ride-pooling operations indicates that, under scaled and commercial oriented operating conditions, autonomous mobility services can already achieve competitive cost levels today, comparable to typical taxi cost ranges of around 1,40–1,50 € per vehicle-kilometer.
Further cost reductions are achievable within a five-year horizon through realistic improvements in software licensing, vehicle platforms, hub automation, and utilization. Under these assumptions, total costs can be reduced to approximately 1,16 €/vehicle-kilometer. This level falls below typical cost levels of conventional taxi and ride-hailing operations, indicating that L4 MaaS services can become not only cost-competitive but cost-advantageous in mature, well-operated deployments.
The findings indicate that the economic viability of autonomous mobility services depends less on technological breakthroughs and more on structured operational design and consistent execution. Technical Supervision emerges as a central economic lever rather than a transitional measure. Autonomous mobility becomes competitive when implemented as an integrated and scalable operating model, rather than being treated solely as advanced vehicle technology.
Download the full whitepaper with all insights — for free:
